Aerodynamic Design Optimization of Wind Turbine Airfoils under Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty

Inclusion of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty in Design Optimization

1. Abstract This paper presents a design optimization methodology under three sources of uncertainty: physical variability (aleatory); data uncertainty (epistemic) due to sparse or imprecise data; and model uncertainty (epistemic) due to modeling errors/approximations. A likelihood-based method is use to fuse multiple formats of information, and a non-parametric probability density function (PD...

Aerodynamic Analysis of Trailing Edge Enlarged Wind Turbine Airfoils

Epistemic versus Aleatory Judgment Under Uncertainty

Both cases involve judgment under uncertainty, with a mixture of evidence supporting and opposing each event’s likelihood. Yet, they involve what appears to be two qualitatively distinct representations of uncertainty. In the first case, Allie’s uncertainty reflects the unpredictability inherent to a stochastic process (i.e., random draws from the pool of Bingo numbers). This type of uncertaint...

Design of Wind Turbine Blade with Thick Airfoils and Flatback and its Aerodynamic Characteristic

large-scaled blade has posed many problems related to design and production. After introducing the features of blade with thick airfoils and flatback, based on relevant parameters of Huaren 100 kW wind turbine, the paper designed blade with thick airfoils and flatback, introduced blade parameter design, and analyzed the aerodynamic performance of blades using GH bladed software, obtaining the r...

Judgment Extremity and Accuracy under Epistemic versus Aleatory Uncertainty

People view uncertain events as either knowable in principle (epistemic uncertainty), as fundamentally random (aleatory uncertainty), or as some mixture of the two. We show that people make more extreme probability judgments (i.e., closer to 0 or 1) for events they view as entailing more epistemic uncertainty and less aleatory uncertainty. We demonstrate this pattern in a domain where there is ...